2024 Paris Masters Upsets: Alcaraz's Path to the Final

By Shane Lambert

The 2024 Paris Masters continued on Wednesday, October 30th. The draw is a little lighter for top players after the last couple of days of action. Firstly, Jannik Sinner pulled out of the event earlier this week because of an illness. On-court upsets on Tuesday took out Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev. On Wednesday, some other talented players fell in the draw.

Daniil Medvedev, the tournament's No. 4 seed, went out to Alexei Popyrin in a match that went to a third-set tiebreaker. Popyrin has made a bit of a name for himself for causing upsets lately. He took Novak Djokovic, who is also a non-participant in the Paris Masters, out of the 2024 US Open several weeks ago.

Taylor Fritz, the No. 5 seed in the Paris event, is also eliminated. He fell to Jack Draper in a match that also went to three sets. Sinner and Fritz were both in the top half of the draw. With them out of the draw, Alexander Zverev vs Carlos Alcaraz now looks like the most probable final. Alcaraz will face Ugo Humbert in an upcoming round-of-16 match.

Alcaraz vs Humbert Prediction: 2024 Paris Masters

Alcaraz has played one match so far this week in Paris. He defeated Nicolas Jarry in the round of 32 with a 7-5, 6-1 line score. Meanwhile, Humbert, who is the No. 15 seed in the Paris Masters, has negotiated his way through two matches (Humber did not have a first-round bye). The French player is 4-1 on sets through Brandon Nakashima and Marcos Giron this week.

Alcaraz has not had trouble against Humbert in the past. Their two head-to-head meetings are both from the current ATP season. Alcaraz is 2-0 in matches that were played at Wimbledon 2024 and in recent Davis Cup play. The Spaniard went 5-1 on sets played in those matches. Furthermore, their Davis Cup match was played on a hard-court surface in an indoor venue. Alcaraz won that match 6-3, 6-3 and the conditions were the same as the ones that the Paris Masters are played under.

When Alcaraz beat Humbert in the Davis Cup, the match was played in Spain, Alcaraz's home country. The Spaniard might find it harder to beat the Frenchman Humbert in front of a partisan French crowd. But with a 13-1 record in matches after the US Open and barely a dropped set in the matches he has not lost, Alcaraz looks like a heavy favorite to go through to the quarterfinals. Humbert, for his part, doesn't seem to be at his absolute best right now.

2024 Paris Masters: Projecting the Final

Alcaraz, if he does make the quarters, would not face a seeded player in that round. That is the section of the draw where Ruud was seeded but he and Tommy Paul are already out. Alcaraz could face Grigor Dimitrov in a tricky semifinal match. Dimitrov is 2-0 against Alcaraz this season so the Spaniard is not a slam dunk to make the final. Looking at the top half of the draw, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alex de Minaur are the key players when one looks past third-seeded Alexander Zverev.