Zverev vs Humbert Prediction - 2024 Paris Masters Final

By Shane Lambert

The Sunday final for the 2024 Paris Masters has been set. This week, Germany's Alexander Zverev, the No. 3 seed in Paris, will face France's Ugo Humbert. Humbert is the No. 15 seed in the tournament, a player looking for the most prestigious title of his career. My Zverev vs Humbert prediction focuses on Zverev, his historical success in the Masters Series events, and the fact that he has had a relatively easy time in Paris this week.

Zverev vs Humbert Head-to-Head Series

Zverev and Humbert have met just twice before in the past. The match that stands out is that they met last year at the Paris Masters. Zverev squeaked out a victory in a match that went to a third-set tiebreaker 6-4, 6-7, 7-6. The final-set tiebreaker had the minimum two-point margin of victory. Previously, Humbert defeated Zverev on grass back in 2021, a match from the ATP Halle event that season.

There are a few things that stand out from their previous matches. Both matches went three sets and the sets were generally very competitive, with three tiebreakers in the six sets between them. 'Home country' advantage has not mattered in their head-to-head series. Zverev beat Humbert in France last season. Meanwhile, Humbert won the match between them in Germany. Also, they played a ton of games in their previous matches, suggesting that the final in Paris this season could be a long one.

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Alexander Zverev and Ugo Humbert: Each Player's Draw to the Final

Zverev had a bye in the first round of the 2024 Paris Masters. Zverev was on the half of the draw that Jannik Sinner pulled out of. Also, Andrey Rublev and Taylor Fritz suffered early-round exits. That left Zverev with a draw to the final in Paris that did not involve beating anyone currently ranked in the Top 10 on the men's tour. In the semifinals, Zverev handled Holger Rune in straight sets. With only one dropped set in the tournament and only two tiebreakers played so far in Paris, Zverev should still have lots of energy for the final.

Humbert has had to work harder to get to the final. He did not have a first-round bye, meaning he has played an extra match this week relative to Zverev. Humbert also dropped three sets en route to the final, which increased his workload. Humbert heads into the final having played 13 sets of tennis this week relative to Zverev's 9. In the semifinals, Humbert played 198 points in his match against Karen Khachanov. Meanwhile, Zverev was off the court after just 142 points. The attrition advantage should be with the German in the Paris final.

Zverev vs Humbert Prediction: Zverev to win

Zverev's resume cannot be ignored as he prepares for the 2024 Paris Masters final. He is a player whose weakness is the best-of-five set format (ie. Grand Slam matches). He is much more dangerous in these best-of-three Masters Series tournaments and his historical results attest to that. Although he has never won a Grand Slam, Zverev has won six Masters Series titles, including one earlier this season. Zverev did lose in the 2020 Paris Masters final but that was to an elite player, Daniil Medvedev. Overall, the German is 143-61 in Masters Series events.

Humbert has six career ATP titles but none of them are in Masters Series events. The 2024 Paris Masters is, in fact, the biggest match of his career. Including his five wins this week in Paris, Humbert is just 30-33 in Master Series events.

Humbert also had trouble crossing the finish line at ATP Tokyo in September. He got to the final and took the first set, but then Arthur Fils claimed the two back-end sets. If the final against Zverev is competitive and long, then I think Zverev has stronger nerves and better endurance. My prediction is that Zverev wins the final to claim another Masters Series title.

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