The semifinal in the top half of the 2024 Paris Masters is set. Alexander Zverev will face Holger Rune with a spot in the final on the line. There is quite a lot at stake in the semifinal match as Rune looks to qualify for the ATP World Tour Finals, an event with huge prize money involved. My Zverev vs Rune prediction focuses on Zverev and the likelihood that he will be better prepared for this upcoming match.
Zverev vs Rune Head-to-Head History
These two players have met three times in the past in ATP matches. Zverev has won twice with both of his heads-up victories coming so far in the 2024 season. Early this year, Zverev defeated Rune at the 2024 French Open, a match that went five sets. That was a clay-court match while the Paris Masters is a hard-court event.
But Zverev did defeat Rune on the hard-court surface at the 2024 Rogers Cup in Canada in straight sets 6-3, 7-5. But their Paris semifinal will be their first meeting on tour with indoor and hard-court conditions.
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Recent Matches: Zverev vs Rune Preview
Alexander Zverev had a bye through the first round in Paris this week. He has since tallied three wins over Tallon Griekspoor, Arthur Fils, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Zverev went 6-1 on sets played with the dropped set coming against Fils. In the last round, Zverev's victory over Tsitsipas came despite a 5-10 record against the Greek.
Zverev entered Paris on decent rest. Yes, he did enter the Vienna draw last week but he only played three matches in the tournament, going out in the quarterfinal round. The German should still be very energetic for the 2024 Paris Masters semifinals following the bye in the first round and some routine wins this week.
Conversely, Rune might be the tired one. He was active last week in Basel, playing four matches in that tournament. Rune did not have a first-round bye in Paris, meaning the semifinal will be his 5th match this week. In the last round, Alex de Minaur pushed Rune to a long match. It went in Rune's favor but at 7-5 in the third set and with 32 total games in the match, it was a long contest. If either player is a bit slow-footed or less than 100%, you'd expect it to be Rune.
What's at Stake for Holger Rune
On year-to-date rankings, Holger Rune is the No. 13 player. He is well on the outside looking in when it comes to making the year-end ATP World Tour Finals. But if he can get the title in Paris, then he will be close to getting into the final event. There are small events to be played before the tour finals but Rune needs to focus on the Paris Masters. That said, even with a title he might not get into the finals. Beating Zverev is more about keeping his hopes alive, hopes that Sam Jacot called "slim" even following the big win in the quarterfinals (ATPTour.com, Nov 1/24).
Quote: https://www.atptour.com/en/news/de-minaur-rune-paris-2024-friday
Zverev vs Rune Prediction: Zverev to win
This one looks like it will go the German's way. The head-to-head series implies as much and Zverev should have more energy. Furthermore, the German has been a lot more consistent throughout this season. He has safely qualified for the year-end event already, the same event Rune is struggling to stay relevant in.
The Dane's hopes might be buoyed a little bit by the dangling carrot of making the ATP World Tour Finals. But Rune has so many losses this season to the top players on tour, that it's hard to picture a win for him against Zverev this weekend.
At the time of writing, the quarterfinals on the bottom half of the draw were still active. Prospective finalists from that section are Ugo Humbert, Jordan Thompson, Grigor Dimitrov, and Karen Khachanov. Humber was leading his quarterfinal match against Thompson. Perhaps the French national will use the positive support in the French capital to plow through to the men's final this weekend.
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